Aintree Festival 2017 – Day 2 – Ladies Day

Well after a great day yesterday with some surprises including Top Notch and Cue Card getting overturned, we head into Day 2 at Aintree and it’s Ladies Day. Although not a Grade 1, the day kicks off with a fascinating 2m Novice Hurdle, before the two big races of the day in the Melling Chase […]

Well after a great day yesterday with some surprises including Top Notch and Cue Card getting overturned, we head into Day 2 at Aintree and it’s Ladies Day. Although not a Grade 1, the day kicks off with a fascinating 2m Novice Hurdle, before the two big races of the day in the Melling Chase and the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle over 3m.

Don’t forget to check out our Aintree page on the site here – Racecourse Guide To Aintree
 

 

2:20 Top Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 2 – 2m

Race Trends & Stats

14/14 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
10/14 – Finished first or second last time out
10/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Aged 5 years-old
7/14 – Had raced on the flat
7/14 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
5/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/14 – Winning favourites
15 of the last 20 (75%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
21 of the last 26 (81%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
Just one Irish winner since 1977
9 of the last 17 (53%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Buveur D’Air (11/4) won the 2016 running

Race Analysis

A really intriguing renewal this year with River Wylde at the top of our shortlist, after a strong 3rd in the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham, he has done all that can be asked of him and in a race that Nicky Henderson has won five times, this lookes a great opportunity for him to go close again. Moon Racer skipped the Supreme and went straight for the Champion Hurdle at the Festival and was a little outclassed before being pulled up three from home, he also needs softer ground than he will encounter today, so looks a little shorter than he should be to us. The big danger to River Wylde could well come from Malcolm Jefferson’s Mount Mews who has been relentless in his progress this season, winning three of his four races, including a 49 length demolition of the field in a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Kelso last month, if in that sort of mood he could prove hard to stop.

RPG RECOMMENDS: MOUNT MEWS TO WIN – CLICK HERE TO BET NOW

 

 

3:25 Melling Chase – Grade 1 – 2m 4f

Race Trends & Stats

14/14 – Raced within the last 30 days
12/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
11/14 – Aged 9 or younger
9/14 – Finished in the top three last time out
8/14 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
7/14 – Winning favourites
6/14 – Irish-trained winners
6/14 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
4/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/14 – Trained by Alan King
20 of the last 26 (77%) runners had won over at least 2m4f
28 of the last 31 (90%) winners were aged 7 or older
12 of the last 22 (55%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
15 of the last 22 (68%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
19 of the last 26 (73%) winners had been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
11 of the last 13 (85%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
24 of the last 26 (92%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season
God’s Own (10/1) won the 2016 running

Race Analysis

A decent renewal this year and the strongest form of the race could be with Sub Lieutenant who has finished 2nd to Un De Sceaux in the Ryanair Chase at the Festival and Sizing John at Thurles in January, who won the Gold Cup. He has nothing of that calibre to worry about in this race and is a solid favourite today. God’s Own ran a cracking Champion Chase and was challenging in 2nd when making a big mistake and halting his momentum. He won this race last year when Vautour came down and then followed that with an impressive win at Punchestown, again beating Vautour. The Tizzard camp have had a quiet Festival so far and Fox Norton could offer a real opportunity to get off and running. He finished 2nd to Special Tiara in the Champion Chase at the Festival and only went down by a head, so 4/1 could prove a big price.

RPG RECOMMENDS: SUB LIEUTENANT TO WIN – CLICK HERE TO BET NOW

 

 

4:40 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 1 – 3m

Race Trends & Stats

12/14 – Had run within the last 35 days
10/14 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
10/14 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
7/14 – Won their last race
4/14 – Raced in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle last time out
3/14 – Favourites that won
2/14 – Won by Jonjo O’Neill stable
1/14 – Irish-trained winners
20 of the last 22 (91%) won at least twice over hurdles before
20 of the last 24 (83%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
12 of the last 23 (52%) winners won over at least 3m previously
7 of the last 11 (64%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
Ballyoptic (9/1) won the 2016 running

Race Analysis

A competitive renewal this year and it will be interesting to see how The Worlds End has recovered from his fall in the Albert Bartlett at the Festival, he was going well when coming down two out and would have been in contention, so if there are no ill effects he will be in the mix again today. Constantine Bay is the more solid choice though, after being badly hampered in the Albert Bartlett, he could never recover to challenge and with a clear passage today he has to be the top of our short list for this. West Approach has been mixing it at the very top including when pulled up in the Stayers Hurdle at the Festival, he also chased home UnowhatImeanHarry in the Cleeve Hurdle in January, but his lack of consistency would be our main concern, on a going day he could win this.

RPG RECOMMENDS: CONSTANTINE BAY – EACH WAY – CLICK HERE TO BET NOW

 

 
Don’t forget to check out our Aintree page on the site here – Racecourse Guide To Aintree – We will be back tomorrow for all the big races on Day 3 – Grand National Day of the Aintree Festival 2017.

Written by:

Richard Mawer

7th April 2017

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