Aintree Festival – Day 1 – Stats – Race Analysis and Tips

Well it seems a long wait since the Festival in mid-March but the Aintree Festival is finally with us and what a first day we have ahead of us today. So let’s get into it and take a look at the three main races on Day 1. Don’t forget to check out our Aintree page […]

Well it seems a long wait since the Festival in mid-March but the Aintree Festival is finally with us and what a first day we have ahead of us today. So let’s get into it and take a look at the three main races on Day 1.

Don’t forget to check out our Aintree page on the site here – Racecourse Guide To Aintree
 

 

2:20 Doom Bar Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle – Grade 1 – 2m 1f

Race Trends & Stats:

13/14 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
11/14 – Placed in the top three last time out
10/14 – Raced in the Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
8/14 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
6/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Won by trainer Alan King (4 of the last 10)
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/14 – Irish-trained winners
French-bred horses have won 9 of the last 18 (50%) runnings
12 of the last 17 winners raced in that season’s Triumph Hurdle
Just 5 of the last 27 winners didn’t win at least twice over hurdles before
Apple’s Jade (3/1 fav) won the 2016 running

Race Analysis:

Well RPG put up DEFI DU SEUIL in the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival and there is little to suggest that he will be beaten here today, probably improving further for the return to a flat track like Aintree. The only slight doubt has to be the fact that this is the first time he has run here, but the depth of the competition in this race is no match for the Triumph form. Divin Bere from Paul Nicholls, is the obvious danger after his 2nd to Flying Tiger in the Fred Winter but it would be a big step up for him to trouble the favourite. Flying Tiger may offer the value in the race and if you don’t want to take the short odds on the favourite then we would recommend a small each way bet on him at 9/1.

RPG RECOMMENDS: DEFI DU SEUIL – WIN – CLICK HERE TO BET

 

 

2:50 Betway Bowl Chase – Grade 1 – 3m 1f

Race Trends & Stats

11/14 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
8/14 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/14 – Ran in the Gold Cup (Cheltenham) last time out
6/14 – Aged in double-figures
4/14 – Won by the Pipe stable
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Won last time out
15 of the last 33 (45%) winners were aged 10 or older
22 of the last 33 (67%) winners ran in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
11 of the last 20 (55%) winners were placed fourth or better in that season’s King George VI Chase
2nd or 3rd favourites have won 13 of the last 24 (54%) renewals
4 of the last 6 winners ran in this race 12 months ago
3 of the last 8 winners finished in the top 3 in that season’s Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury
Cue Card (6/5 fav) won the 2016 running

Race Analysis:

Can he do it again ? Well CUE CARD bounced back from a fall in the Gold Cup to win this race in impressive fashion and that is the task that faces him again today. Although this year he was under pressure when coming down and there have been plenty of commentators who believe he is past his best. This may be a heart on our sleeves job, but we feel he will bounce back today. The main danger looks to be Gordon Elliott’s Empire of Dirt who was a little outpaced in the Ryanair and well beaten by Un De Sceaux, this step back up in trip looks sure to suit and he could well put it to the favourite. Bristol De Mai comes with a health and wealth warning, when on form like he was at Haydock in January to win the Peter Marsh by 22 lengths he looks a world beater but he was outclassed in the Gold Cup and needs to bounce back from that. He does love flat tracks – so don;t rule him out. A similar comment applies to Silviniaco Conti and the 11yo loves it here at Aintree.

RPG RECOMMENDS: CUE CARD TO WIN – CLICK HERE TO BET NOW

 

 

3:25 Betway Aintree Hurdle – Grade 1 –  2m 4f

Race Trends & Stats

14/14 – Aged 8 or younger
11/14 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/14 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
8/14 – Irish-trained winner, plus 18 of the last 41
8/14 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle last time out
4/14 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
4/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/14 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
8 of the last 16 (50%) winners had won at this meeting before
6 of the last 10 Champion Hurdle winners to race have lost
Just 1 of the last 16 Champion Hurdle runner-ups to race have won
Annie Power (4/9 fav) won the 2016 running

Race Analysis

It is hard to find a chink in the armour of Buveur D’Air who is unbeaten in his last five runs and beat Petit Mouchoir here last year to win the Grade 1 Novices Hurdle. The manner in which he won the Champion Hurdle by over four lengths was very impressive, but there has to be a doubt over him staying the 2m 4f today, so we would struggle to justify taking 4/9 on him. We are going to take a chance on THE NEW ONE back at the flat track of Aintree where he has won twice before. He has looked like he just lacks the pace for 2m at the very top and the way he won the International Hurdle in December suggested that stepping up in trip would really suit him, we had hoped he would be tried over 3m in the World Hurdle. Identity Thief skipped Cheltenham and so will be fresh coming into today’s race, so do not underestimate Henry De Bromhead’s charge from running a big race.

RPG RECOMMENDS: THE NEW ONE TO WIN – CLICK HERE TO BET

Don’t forget to check out our Aintree page on the site here – Racecourse Guide To Aintree – We will be back tomorrow for all the big races on Day 2 of the Aintree Festival.
 

 

Written by:

Richard Mawer

6th April 2017

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