Cheltenham Gold Cup Day – Day 4 – Big Race Stats & Analysis

The final day of the Festival 2017 and it is Cheltenham Gold Cup day, with another three Grade 1 races for you all to enjoy including the Triumph Hurdle, Albert Bartlett and of course the main race of the week the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Belwo are all the stats, race analysis and tips you need […]


The final day of the Festival 2017 and it is Cheltenham Gold Cup day, with another three Grade 1 races for you all to enjoy including the Triumph Hurdle, Albert Bartlett and of course the main race of the week the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Belwo are all the stats, race analysis and tips you need to make your final day at Cheltenham a winning one.

Don’t forget to check out our Cheltenham focused page every day of racing here – Cheltenham Racecourse Guide

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1:30    JCB Triumph Hurdle – Grade 1 – 2m 1f

Big Race Stats:

18 of the last 23 winners won last time out
10 of the last 12 came from the top 4 in the betting
Respect Henderson (6 winners), Nicholls, and King-trained runners
7 of the last 13 first ran over hurdles in November
9 of the last 11 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide
4 of the last 8 winners had run in France before
Nicky Henderson has trained 6 winners of the race
Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 10

 RPG Race Analysis:

Another of the races that JP McManus loves to dominate and he won it last year with Ivanovic Gorbatov. It is significant that he has three of the top four in the market in this year’s Triumph. The best of those is undoubtedly DEFI DU SEUIL who sets the standard on what he has achieved so far and also the fact that he still looks open to plenty of progress. He has won twice here over this trip and will be hard to beat if in that sort of form. The main danger could come from Master Blueeyes who looked very impressive when winning the Adonis at Kempton by 11 lengths. Mega Fortune is only a 4yo but has already made a reputation for himself over in Ireland with wins at Sligo, Dromore and Leopardstown over the past year, that last run at Leopardstown was in a Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle and the way he kept on makes him a very interesting prospect.

RPG RECOMMENDED BET: Win Bet on DEFI DU SEUIL – Click Here To Bet Now


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2:50    Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle – Grade 1 – 3m

Big Race Stats:

8 of the last 12 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
8 of the last 12 came from the top 5 in the betting
9 of the last 11 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
10 of the last 12 had run in a race over 3m
9 of the last 11 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
10 of the last 11 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
4 of the last 11 favourites won
Jonjo O’Neill (2) and the Irish (4) have won 6 of the last 11
Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
Avoid horses that didn’t finish 1st or 2nd last time out
Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles (0 from 32)
Willie Mullins is 0 from 25 in the race
Only 1 of the last 12 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

RPG Race Analysis:

A competitive renewal and the race was won by UnowhatImeanharry last year, but with no JP McManus challenge this year it is thrown open. Death Duty has been the talking horse coming into the race for Gordon Elliott and his past three wins have all been in Graded commpany, so on the form book he is the one they all have to beat.The last of those victories was at Naas where he won by 9 lengths in a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle, however you would have to question what he beat on the day, after Augusta Kate came down at the last and wether the ground conditions are what he wants today. Augusta Kate is back today to get her revenge and has soolid form behind her since finishing 2nd in the Grade 2 bumper at Aintree last year. Our vote is going to WHOLESTONE who has the course experience as a major positive on his side, running here on the last four occasions and winning on three of those. The manner in which he won the December running of this race over course and distance was very pleasing and he will be hard to beat.

RPG RECOMMENDED BET: Win bet on WHOLESTONE – Click Here To Bet Now

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3:30    Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase – Grade 1 – 3m 2f

Big Race Stats:

15 of the last 17 winners ran in the Lexus or King George that season
14 of the last 16 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11 of the last 16 had won or placed 2nd at the festival before
15 of the last 16 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
15 of the last 16 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
15 of the last 20 winners were bred in Ireland
8 of the last 11 winners won last time out
5 of the last 11 favourites won
ALL of the last 17 winners were aged 9 or younger
9 winners since 2000 HADN’T run in the calendar year
Non Grade One winners are 0 from the last 17 runnings
No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 68)
Horses rated 166 or less are only 3 from last 16
Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season (0 from 72)
Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 38
Willie Mullins is yet to win the race, 0 from 17 (had last 4 seconds though)
Just 1 of the last 9 winners had raced more than 3 times that season

RPG Race Analysis:

A fantastic renewal of the Gold Cup this year and as the betting suggests this is an open race. The four timer yesterday for the Mullins and Walsh combination will make Djakadam very popular and he has already come into favouritism however he always seems to find one too good in these races and we question his appetite to win at times. The last time he was seen he was seen he was well beaten at Leopardstown by Don Poli and Outlander and he was probably a little flattered by his 2nd to Don Cossack in this race last year, after Cue Card came down. He also likes conditions softer than he will experience today. Our vote goes to CUE CARD who was going well last year when coming down and he soon made amends at Aintree when winning the Betfred Bowl. He is getting older and as an 11yo old taking on younger horses he has it all to do, but his attitude when losing to stablemate Thistlecrack was fantastic in the King George and again he bounced back to destroy the field in the Ascot Chase last month, winning by 15 lengths. He is still at the top of his game and the yard say he has never been better. On the form line with Djakadam, do not rule out a big run from Outlander, on a going day he is more than capable of winning this race and although much of his winning has been done on softer ground, he can go on anything.

RPG RECOMMENDED BET: Win bet on CUE CARD – Click Here To Bet Now

So that is it, the end of another fantastic Cheltenham Festival and now we look forward to Aintree and the Grand National in a month’s time.

Written by:

Richard Mawer

16th March 2017

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