The Grand National 2017 – Aintree Festival – Day 3

The big day is here, The Grand National 2017 is upon us and it looks like being a fantastic day at Aintree with blue skies and temperatures set to hit 20 degrees. The racing will be just as hot too with three big Grade 1’s before the Grand National itself at 5:15pm. So who will […]

The big day is here, The Grand National 2017 is upon us and it looks like being a fantastic day at Aintree with blue skies and temperatures set to hit 20 degrees. The racing will be just as hot too with three big Grade 1’s before the Grand National itself at 5:15pm. So who will win today ? Read on and find out πŸ™‚

Don’t forget to check out our Aintree page on the site here – Racecourse Guide To Aintree
 

 

2:25 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle – Grade 1 – 2m 4f

Race Trends & Stats:

13/14 – Raced 39 days or less ago
13/14 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
12/14 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
10/14 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
10/14 – Placed in the top three last time out
10/14 – Raced in the Supreme (3), Neptune (6) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
6/14 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (5 of the last 7 favs have won)
5/14 – Won their last race
4/14 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/14 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 6 runnings)
15 of the last 19 (79%) winners were either fav or 2nd fav
14 of the last 20 (70%) winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival
Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 6 of the last 13 (46%) runnings between them
5 of the last 7 runnings went to a 5 year-old
Yorkhill (3/10 fav) won the 2016 running

Race Analysis:

A race Colin Tizzard has targetted, winning it twice in recent years and the unbeaten Finian’s Oscar missed Cheltenham so will be fresh today. He has looked like another superstar in the making and is at the top of our shortlist for this race. Paul Nicholl’s and Nicky Henderson have won this race 6 times out of the past 13 runnings, so it always pays to take a close look at their entries and Brio Conti has really benefitted from the step up in trip and the way he won at Kempton in March, beating Divine Spear by over 3 lengths marked him out as one to keep onside. Lough Derg Spirit bounced back to form at Musselburgh in February and is clearly a horse who prefers a flatter track, so skipped Cheltenham in favour of this, he could well give Nicky Henderson another winner at the meeting.

RPG RECOMMENDS: FINIAN’S OSCAR TO WIN – CLICK HERE TO BET

 

 

3:00 Maghull Novices’ Chase – Grade 1 – 2m

Race Trends & Stats:

14/14 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
14/14 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
14/14 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
12/14 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
11/14 – Ran within the last 35 days
11/14 – Placed in the top three in their last race
10/14 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
8/14 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/14 – Favourites that won
6/14 – Won their last race
5/14 – Won by either Ruby Walsh (3) or Barry Geraghty (2)
3/14 – Irish-trained winners
3/14 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/14 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 6 runnings)
2/14 – Won by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc two of the last 4 runnings)
Since 1989 there have been just 3 Irish-trained winners – 2013, 2015 & 2016
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 5 winners and 7 runners-up
18 of the last 22 (82%) winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season
Douvan (2/9 fav) won the 2016 running

Race Analysis:

As with Douvan last year, this race looks to be all about one horse and that is Charbel provided he is not suffering any ill effects from his fall in the Arkle when going well, this is a far easier test for him and he is the one they all have to beat. However our vote is going to Paul Nicholl’s Politologue who offers value agains the favourite, he certainly was not disgraced in the JLT at the Festival and all his best runs have been on flat courses such as Ascot, Haydock and Kempton. Forest Bihan was thought good enough to be entered in the Arkle and was not without his supporters in the race, he has won at Towcester, Doncaster and Newcastle this term and is worth a look.

RPG RECOMMENDS:

 

 

4:20 Stayers’ Liverpool Hurdle – Grade 1 – 3m

Race Trends & Stats:

13/13 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
12/13 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
12/13 – Ran within the last 30 days
10/13 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle
10/13 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
9/13 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/13 – Won their last race
7/13 – Favourites to win (6 odds-on)
6/13 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
4/13 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/13 – Ridden by jockey Ruby Walsh
1/13 – Number of Irish-trained winners
Whisper won the race in 2014 & 2015
Thistlecrack (2/7 fav) won the 2016 running

Race Analysis:

After his disappointing run in the Champion Hurdle, the gloss has come off Yanworth a little, but back at a flat track and stepped up to this trip, he could easily bounce back, especially with Barry Geraghty back in the saddle. The question is, would you take a short price on him ? If not then last year’s World Hurdle winner Cole Harden, in a first time visor, could well be the answer. He finished 4th in the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham and has finished 2nd in both his career runs at Aintree, so clearly likes the track. You just can’t ignore Supasundae in the form that Robbie Power and the Potts are in and the way he won the Coral Cup was very impressive, although he does seem to struggle to back up a good run and that lack of consistency is a cause for concern.

RPG RECOMMENDS: YANWORTH TO WIN – CLICK HERE TO BET NOW

 

 

5:15 Grand National Chase – Grade 3 – 4m 3f

Race Trends & Stats

26/26 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
24/26 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
25/26 – Officially rated 137 or higher
23/26 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
23/26 – Aged 9 or older
21/26 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
21/26 – Returned a double-figure price
20/26 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
20/26 – Carried 10-12 OR LESS
18/26 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
16/26 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
15/26 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
15/26 – Aged 10 years-old or younger
14/26 – Placed favourites
14/26 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
13/26 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
9/26 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
8/26 – Trained in Ireland (inc 5 of the last 11 years)
6/26 – Ran in a previous Grand National
5/26 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
4/26 – Won last time out
2/26 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/26 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/26 – Ridden by Leighton Aspell
0/26 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Race Analysis:

The big race and it is as open as ever, so out of the 40 runners, who should you focus on ? Well firstly you can use the stats above to narrow down the field to the main 6 – 8 contenders statistically. But the main two are Age and Weight.

AGE: A great starting point is the age of the horse, so you can forget 7yo’s, as they don;t yet have the experience and 11 and 12 yo’s are getting a bit long in the tooth and lack the stamina to see it out. So already a quarter of the field are out.The sweet spot for a Grand National winner is 8,9 and 10. Although 9 and 10 yr olds have dominated.

WEIGHT: Next look at the weight on the back, 4m 3f is a long way and so you really do not want a horse carrying much more than 10st 12lb, as the stats support above, with 20 out of the past 26 winners carrying less than that. Although, with the course bieng made slightly easier over the last 6 years we have seen Don’t Push It win off 11st 5lb, Neptune Collonges win off 11st 6lb and Many Clouds win off 11st 9lb.

So our picks for the big race this year would be Definitly Red who is a strong favourite after winning the Grimthorpe at Doncaster in eyecatching fashion, alhtough has no experience of the Aintree fences. Vieux Lion Rouge has been in smart form this season and can build on his 7th place effort around here last year behind Rule The World. Rogue Angel who is trained by Mouse Morris who trained last years winner Rule The World, carries only 10st 8lb and is the perfect age. Pleasant Company from Willie Mullins and hasΒ  Ruby Walsh in the saddle, is another who ticks all the boxes for us. However if you like a horse at a decent price then go for Saint Are who has got around the National fences twice and went close when finishing 2nd to Many Clouds a couple of years ago. He is carrying 10st 10lb around and with first time blinkers on he could well be in the mix.

RPG RECOMMENDS: VIEUX LION ROUGE – EACH WAY – CLICK HERE TO BET NOW

Don’t forget to check out our Aintree page on the site here – Racecourse Guide To Aintree

Written by:

Richard Mawer

7th April 2017

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